Vital signs: Middle-market business leaders remain resilient
Despite economic uncertainty, middle market leaders are choosing to remain resilient in 2025, according to J.P. Morgan’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey released June 30.
The survey interviewed 718 U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million.
Compared with the start of the year, optimism for the national economy fell by more than half, dropping from 65% as reported in January, to 32% in June. In line with these findings, there was an increase in recession expectations among business leaders: 25% of respondents expect a recession in 2025, up from 8%.
Overall, the top three challenges facing companies are uncertain economic conditions (55%), tariffs (41%) and revenue and sales growth (41%).
Despite overall decline in economic optimism, confidence in actual business remains strong. According to the report, 78% expect revenue and sales to increase or remain the same, 73% expect profits to increase or remain the same and 37% plan to increase headcount, while 45% plan to keep headcount the same.
“Businesses are operating with caution in the current environment,” said Matt Sable, Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. “Leaders are recalibrating where necessary to ensure they can continue to deliver for their clients and communities, highlighting their resilience and determination.”
