Our view: Supersized infill projects latest housing solution
We have seen the future and it is infill.
While progress on the region’s housing affordability crisis is painfully slow, there are some signs that municipalities are embracing larger multi-family projects that could ease some pressure on rents. Here are two that crossed our inbox in recent days.
• In Santa Barbara, the former La Cumbre Plaza shopping center is going to replace its decades-old Macy’s and long-shuttered Sears store with over 1,000 rental units. Demolition is set to begin on the Macy’s site, which will become more than 650 units of rental apartments, a development that will reach up to six stories — it cleared a major hurdle with design review approval this month. At the other end of the mall, the former Sears site has been approved for a nearly 450-unit project called La Cumbre South Homes.
• In Oxnard, McCarthy Companies, whose expertise in multi-family construction has made it a regional leader, is breaking ground on the latest phase of its Vintage at Lockwood project, with 234 units designed for older tenants who are living on fixed incomes. The entire Vintage Lockwood project adds over 600 new rental units to Oxnard, providing targeted housing solutions to the tri-county region’s largest city.
Meanwhile, a November study by Yardi Matrix, part of the Santa Barbara-based real estate software giant, suggests that multi-family residential construction is adapting to higher capital and materials costs as well as tight labor markets.
The report says 2026 will represent the bottom of new construction, with an upswing in the works for 2027 and 2028.
From Thousand Oaks, where McCarthy is working on a smaller project with Shapell Properties, through Paso Robles, which is experiencing a bit of a boom, infill solutions are likely to come off the drawing boards next year.
One counterpoint is that new, large corporate projects are giving longtime landlords yet another reason to cash out. According to a release from Jack Gilbert at Radius, one longtime Oxnard owner sold a 48-unit Oxnard property for $10.92 million, preferring cash to rising maintenance costs and regulatory burdens.
Federal Reserve rate hikes and local red tape are still barriers even for corporate owners.
But with tariffs at or past peak and with immigration crackdowns likely to get more Congressional scrutiny, some of the cost pressures on housing infill projects may ease.
RIGHT AS RAIN
Suddenly, it’s water, water everywhere.
Thanks to heavy October and November rainfall in the Southwest, the water level at Lake Powell has risen over 20 feet in the past month, lifting the giant Colorado River reservoir out of the most dire drought conditions at 27% full. Lake Powell is the nation’s second-largest reservoir and the major source for Lake Mead, a crucial source of water for millions of California residents.
Closer to home, Santa Barbara County reservoirs, which have some of the easiest-to-follow metrics in the region, have received an average of 240% of normal rainfall for the so-called “water year” beginning Sept. 1. Lake Cachuma, the largest reservoir in the county system, is 83% full and highly likely to reach capacity if the Super El Niño materializes as expected.
