Census report shows U.S. Latino population larger than expected
A new report from Cal Lutheran University’s Center for Economic Forecasting sifted through the recent United States Census Bureau report, believing that the Bureau’s “recent June 2025 official U.S. population estimates indicate strength for the economy.”
Written by Dan Hamilton, director and associate professor of the Master of Science in Quantitative Economics for CERF, the report highlighted that America is larger than most people knew, as the estimated number of Americans as of July 1, 2023, rose by 1.9 million persons. As a result, the U.S. population change between 2010 and 2024 is about 30 million, up from an estimate of 25 million.
These population estimates also reveal a newly understood demographic strength by ethnicity, with both the Latino and non-Latino population growth rates significantly faster than previously estimated.
According to the report, the 2023 Non-Latino population growth rate is now estimated to be 0.4%, compared to a previously estimated 0.2%. The 2023 Latino population growth rate is now estimated at 2.7%, versus a previously estimated 1.8%.
“With the new data revealing an updated estimate of the size of the U.S. Latino population, we can see that Latinos are creating an even greater demographic and economic punch than previously understood,” the report said.
The Census Bureau’s June 2025 data release also highlighted new, never-before-released population estimates for 2024. According to the data, the U.S. Population as of July 1, 2024, is estimated to be over 340 million persons, which is 3.3 million persons greater than 2023 and, perhaps more importantly, the report suggested, is that there are 5.2 million persons greater than the earlier estimates of 2023.
The report also provided population estimates by ethnicity for 2024, with 8.1 million Latinos and 272 million Non-Latinos.
“Our understanding of the size of the 2024 Latino cohort is that it is 2.9 million persons larger than the previous estimates of 2023, and the new Non-Latino cohort size is 2.3 million persons greater than the previous estimate of 2023,” the report read.
The report asserted that the Latino cohort is now, for the first time in history, one out of every five persons in the United States.
Their 2024 population growth rate was three times as fast as that of the overall country, and 5.8 times as fast as the Non-Latino cohort, according to the report.
“The rapidity of Latino population growth provides another channel by which the American economy will exhibit strength going forward. The Latino cohort, as described by Hamilton et al 2025, is younger, more likely to work, is accumulating human capital at a higher rate, has higher income growth, and is forming households at a more rapid rate than the Non-Latino cohort, all of which will provide strength and vitality to the American economy in future years,” the report concluded.
In July, CERF released its latest California Latino GDP Report, highlighting that if California Latinos comprised their own state, their GDP would be the nation’s sixth-largest state GDP, sitting behind only Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois.
The report was co-authored by Matthew Fienup, CERF’s executive director, David Hayes-Bautista, distinguished professor of medicine at UCLA, Hamilton and UCLA’s Paul Hsu, department of epidemiology.
Latinos’ contribution to California’s economy has enabled the state to have the fourth biggest GDP in the world at $4.1 trillion. Without Latinos, the state’s overall GDP would be the eighth-largest in the world, not the fourth.
Moreover, the report highlighted that California’s Latino labor force is growing 15 times faster than the non-Latino labor force.
Latino educational attainment is increasing 3.4 times quicker than that of non-Latinos, and Latinos are 5.6% more likely to be actively working than non-Latinos, according to the report.
The state’s Latinos also enjoy better health outcomes, with lower age-adjusted mortality across all five leading causes of death and a life expectancy that is more than two years longer than that of non-Latinos, the researchers found.
The report also highlights the importance of California’s Latino immigrant population.
In 2023, 41% of working-age Latinos in California were immigrants, according to the study.
Applying that share to the California Latino GDP, the researchers estimate that Latino immigrants are responsible for nearly $400 billion in annual economic output in the state.
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