New GDP data shows onset of pandemic recession in region
The combined gross domestic product of the tri-county region dropped 2.4% from 2019 to 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, a better performance than either the state or the nation as a whole, according to data released Dec. 8 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross domestic product is the dollar value of Read More →
A tale of two forecasts: UCSB report describes strong 2018-19, disastrous 2020
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CLU economists say short lockdown key to small business survival
A new report from the Center for Economic Research & Forecasting at California Lutheran University underscores the ferocity of the debate around re-opening the economy. CERF forecasters Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton now project a stunning, nearly 20 percent drop in GDP and Great Depression levels of job losses, followed by a long, slow U-shaped Read More →
Lisi: COVID-19 impacts values and acquisitions
By James Lisi From Feb. 20 to March 20, the bond risk premium jumped two points. This jump was larger than any previous move over a one-year period. Well-regarded economists are forecasting 20 percent to 35 percent fall in Gross Domestic Product for the next few months. We have just exited the best market for Read More →
Our view: U.S. Latinos have huge impact on the economy
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If U.S. Latino GDP was a country, it would be eighth largest
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Our view: Monetary policy shouldn’t be only game in town
IWhen President Ronald Reagan cut taxes in the 1980s, the national debt was 30 percent of GDP. Even those tax cuts were partially reversed amid rising deficits and, by the late 1990s, the U.S. Treasury was running a rare surplus. Today, after large tax cuts in the early 2000s, spending for wars and recession recovery Read More →
